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- Pension values differed from £276k to £215k in the most positive and negative climate outcomes
- Alongside potential impacts on retirement savings, the report examines how different climate futures could shape everyday life, from health and housing to transport and public services.
Retirement savings levels could vary by as much as £60,000 under different climate scenarios, according to a new report, Retirement in 2050: The world we retire into from Standard Life in partnership with Robeco. The report explores three possible futures and found that in the most positive scenario, in which the impact of climate change is largely mitigated, a typical retiree might have built savings of £276,000 in today’s money, while in the most negative scenario their fund could be worth £215,000. This means a difference of more than £60,000 over a working lifetime3.
The study finds that while pension savings remain fundamental to retirement security, factors such as health, housing, infrastructure and social resilience could play an equally important role in determining how people experience retirement in the decades ahead. As a retirement specialist, Standard Life believes understanding the long-term forces that could shape future retirement outcomes is an important element of helping people achieve financial security in later life.
Three versions of 2050. Three very different lives in retirement
The research explores three possible futures for the UK in 2050, using climate scenario analysis to understand how different levels of climate adaptation and resilience could affect retirement outcomes. The scenarios are not forecasts. Instead, they are designed to illustrate how varying levels of warming, adaptation and economic resilience could influence everything from pension wealth and economic growth to health, housing and quality of life in later life. The report’s findings are illustrated by three fictional individuals all of whom are in their forties today, with the same level of savings and earnings.
In the Healthy Ageing scenario, climate risks are largely managed through successful adaptation, resilient infrastructure and stronger economic growth. In Getting By, the UK continues to adapt but less proactively and faces growing pressure from climate impacts, resulting in slower growth and greater strain on public services. In Fragmented & Exposed, adaptation struggles to keep pace with increasingly severe disruption, leading to weaker economic performance, greater pressure on healthcare and infrastructure, and poorer outcomes for future retirees.
| Healthy ageing in a resilient UK | Getting by under pressure | Fragmented and exposed | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate scenario | Global warming on track to stay well below 2C by 2100 | Global warming on track to rise between 2-3C by 2100 |
Global warming on track to rise above 3C by 2100 |
| Real economic growth | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Real equity return1 | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Inflation | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| Illustrative pension pot in 2050 – in real terms | £276,000 | £266,000 | £215,000 |
Retirement outcomes diverge far beyond pension savings
Beyond financial outcomes, the report also sought to bring to life how different climate scenarios may affect how people experience retirement. The scenarios associated with stronger economic growth, higher investment returns and lower inflation are also those characterised by more resilient infrastructure, healthier communities and stronger public services. Conversely, weaker growth, lower investment returns and increasing pressure on healthcare, housing and infrastructure create a more challenging environment for retirees.
These differences are driven not solely by climate impacts themselves, but by their wider effects on economic growth, investment, public services and the resilience of the systems people depend upon throughout later life. In the most fragmented future, transport and water infrastructure come under increasing strain, healthcare becomes more stretched and a growing share of high-risk homes become effectively uninsurable. The report also highlights how everyday experiences could change, with international travel becoming more difficult and familiar foods becoming less abundant as agriculture and marine ecosystems change, potentially affecting everything from weekly food choices to the traditional fish and chips supper.
In Robeco’s in-depth analysis supporting the report, published separately, life expectancy varies across the scenarios, from 90 years in the most resilient future to 72 years in the most fragmented. The age at which people enter their final 15 years of life falls from 79 years to 74 years, highlighting the significant impact that climate resilience, public health and environmental conditions could have on retirement outcomes.
Social cohesion also weakens across the scenarios, with the share of people who say their neighbours would be willing to help falling from 88% to 62%. This suggests a future in which community connections and informal support networks may be less able to support retirees as they age. Income inequality also widens significantly, from 4 to 8, meaning the income of the top 20% rises from four times to eight times that of the lowest 20%, potentially widening gaps in access to healthcare, housing security, transport and other resources that support quality of life in retirement4.
For decades, conversations about retirement adequacy have rightly focused on how much people save. As a retirement specialist, we believe it is now imperative that we also focus on the future in which savers will retire into. Long-term financial security remains fundamental, but so too are the conditions that influence how far people's savings go and the quality of life they can enjoy in later life. For Standard Life, helping customers achieve good retirement outcomes means considering both the pension they build and the world in which they will ultimately spend it.
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The scenarios are associated with markedly different long-term economic growth environments, ranging from around 2.0% real growth in the most resilient future to 0.6% in the most fragmented. Therefore, illustrating how economic growth, investment returns, health, infrastructure and social resilience interact to shape retirement outcomes over time5.
Bruno continues:
Our research suggests that the most resilient futures also tend to deliver the strongest economic performance, healthier communities and better experiences for future retirees. For policymakers, businesses and investors alike, this underscores the value of creating a stable environment for long-term investment and supporting the transition to a more resilient economy. Doing so is not simply about responding to climate risk, but rather helping build the conditions that support prosperity, financial security and better outcomes for future generations of retirees.
Our scenarios reinforce a key reality for investors: long-term financial outcomes are shaped by the health and resilience of the economies in which we invest. Building a more climate resilient economy is not only important for managing risk, but also for unlocking investment opportunities that can support sustainable growth and long-term returns. For pension savers, these factors have a direct bearing on the retirement outcomes they may achieve over coming decades.
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Media enquiries
For further information, photos, video content or interviews, contact:
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Rebecca O'Daly
Public Relations ManagerTelephone07976111501
Emailrebecca.odaly@standardlife.com
Notes to editors:
1. Standard Life and Robeco’s report Retirement in 2050: The world we retire into is available at: How could climate change shape retirement in 2050?
Developed in partnership with Robeco, the research is grounded in established academic climate and socioeconomic scenario frameworks, complemented by peer-reviewed research, official datasets and UK-specific evidence on health, housing, infrastructure, public services, nature and social resilience. This provides a transparent and robust foundation for exploring how different long-term futures could affect retirement outcomes.
At the core of the analysis is the scenario architecture used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), bringing together Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). SSPs are an established framework widely used in climate research to describe plausible futures for societal, economic, demographic and technological development. RCPs describe alternative greenhouse-gas concentration and climate-forcing pathways. Together, they provide a consistent framework for exploring how socioeconomic development and physical climate change could evolve alongside one another.
The report's three scenarios build on three established SSP-RCP pathway combinations:
- Healthy Ageing in a Resilient UK (SSP1-2.6): a sustainable and cooperative future characterised by strong institutions, coordinated mitigation and adaptation, and investment in health, infrastructure and nature.
- Getting By Under Pressure (SSP2-4.5): a middle-of-the-road future in which mitigation continues but more slowly and unevenly, adaptation is incremental, and infrastructure and public services come under increasing pressure.
- Fragmented and Exposed (SSP3-7.0): a more fragmented future characterised by stalled mitigation, weaker institutions and public investment, delayed or poorly coordinated adaptation, slower growth and greater climate-related disruption.
The analysis draws on existing peer-reviewed research, official datasets and established scenario methodologies, rather than introducing new projections where the existing evidence does not support them. This approach is intended to provide a robust and defensible evidence base while limiting reliance on highly uncertain assumptions.
The contribution of the research lies in applying and integrating these established frameworks through a retirement lens. The SSP-RCP pathways are combined with UK-specific evidence to consider not only the financial resources people might accumulate, but also the health, housing, infrastructure, environmental and social conditions in which those resources could ultimately be used.
The research further develops this application by constructing illustrative climate-damage-adjusted economic pathways for the UK and the world, drawing on established climate-economics research and incorporating a UK-specific adjustment to global climate-damage estimates. These economic pathways are then translated into long-term assumptions for investment returns and pension accumulation. The resulting framework therefore connects areas often considered separately: climate and socioeconomic scenarios, UK-specific climate and economic impacts, financial-market outcomes, pension savings and the wider lived experience of retirement.
The scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as predictions of conditions in 2050. Rather, they are plausible and internally consistent futures designed to explore how different combinations of climate, economic and societal conditions could affect retirement outcomes. The pension modelling, economic assumptions and wider outcome indicators illustrate differences between scenarios rather than predict precise future values.
2. Robeco’s report What Three 2050 Scenarios Mean For Pensions can be viewed here: Insights - Latest research and outlooks | Robeco Global
3. Illustrative pension modelling: Pension outcomes were modelled using a hypothetical saver earning £40,000 with a starting pension balance of £40,000 and contributing 10% of salary. Salary growth and investment returns vary across the scenarios. Under these assumptions, projected pension wealth in 2050 ranges from £276,416 in the most resilient scenario to £215,687 in the most fragmented scenario, with £266,106 under the middle pathway. Results are illustrative and not forecasts.
4. Social cohesion and inequality are composite indicators developed for the scenario analysis. The social-cohesion measure represents the share of the population reporting that neighbours would be willing to help. It captures one specific aspect of perceived informal support. The inequality indicator reflects relative differences in access to opportunities, resources and resilience across society. Both are presented as scenario comparison measures and are intended to illustrate relative differences between the futures modelled rather than forecast a specific future outcome.
5. The climate-damage-adjusted modelling used in the report assumes long-term real economic growth ranging from 2.0% in the Healthy Ageing scenario to 0.6% in the Fragmented & Exposed scenario. These different economic environments influence wage growth, investment returns and ultimately retirement outcomes.
About Standard Life
Standard Life is a retirement specialist focused entirely on retirement saving and income. We are proud to manage around c£317bn in assets on behalf of our 12 million customers, and we champion the belief that everyone's journey to and through retirement can be better.
With our focus entirely on retirement savings and income we want to be the business that people trust to guide their retirement journey, helping our customers achieve better outcomes and greater financial security in later life.
As a FTSE 100-listed group we are using our size, expertise and influence to shape the world our customers will retire into, and are committed to helping three million more customers by 2035, take action towards a better retirement.
Standard Life is a responsible investor with a clear commitment to supporting a more sustainable future. The Group has achieved its net zero goal across its emissions for 2025 and is working towards net zero investment portfolios by 2050 or sooner.
Standard Life is recognised as a leading employer, with long-standing accreditation as a Living Wage Employer, Living Pension Employer and Carer Positive Exemplary Employer and in 2025 became one of Britain’s Most Admired Companies in 2025.
About Robeco
Robeco is a pure-play international asset manager founded in 1929 with headquarters in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and 16 offices worldwide. A global leader in sustainable investing since 1995, its integration of sustainable as well as fundamental and quantitative research enables the company to offer institutional and private investors an extensive selection of active investment strategies, for a broad range of asset classes. On 31 December 2025, Robeco had EUR 337 billion in total client assets. Robeco is a subsidiary of ORIX Corporation Europe N.V. More information is available at www.robeco.com.