What could retirement look like in 2025?

The decisions we make today will help shape the world people retire into tomorrow. By bringing together retirement expertise, investment insight and climate scenario analysis, Standard Life and Robeco are exploring how climate change could affect later life and long-term financial wellbeing. Through our scale, influence and long-term investment approach, we aim to help customers build financial resilience for the future while supporting a transition to a net zero world by 2050.

How climate change could affect retirement

Retirement planning has traditionally focused on factors such as savings, investment returns and how long people are likely to live. However, the economic, environmental and social conditions in which people retire could be just as important.

Retirement in 2050: The world we retire into, developed by Standard Life and Robeco, combines climate scenario modelling with retirement insights and personas to illustrate the experiences of three fictional retirees - Debbie, Leroy and Lahna - to show how different climate scenarios between now and 2050 could affect health, independence, financial security, communities and quality of life in later years.

By connecting modelled data with possible lived experiences, the research makes the relationship between climate change and retirement more tangible. It also highlights a central finding: greater economic, social and environmental resilience could support better retirement outcomes.

Three possible retirement scenarios for 2050

  • Healthy ageing in a resilient UK: Global warming is on track to be below 2°C by 2100

    In 2050 climate mitigation and adaptation progress rapidly in a coordinated way. Strong public institutions, high investment in health, infrastructure and nature, and declining inequality reduce exposure and vulnerability to climate hazards.
     

  • Getting by under pressure: Global warming is on track to reach around 2-3°C by 2100

    This scenario reflects a continuation of current trends. In 2050 global and national mitigation efforts continue, but more slowly and unevenly. Adaptation is incremental rather than transformative, often reacting to shocks rather than preventing them. Systems such as healthcare, water, and infrastructure remain functional but increasingly strained.
     

  • Fragmented and exposed: Global warming is on track to rise above 3°C by 2100

    Under this scenario mitigation stalls and adaptation is delayed or poorly coordinated. In 2050 economic and political fragmentation weakens institutions and erodes public investment, while climate hazards intensify. Environmental degradation accelerates and social inequalities widen.

In the modelling, the illustrative pension pot reaches £276,0001 in the most resilient scenario, compared with £215,0001 in the most exposed scenario - a difference of £61,0001.

1 For details on how these figures were calculated, please look at each scenario in the report

Creating the conditions for better retirements

The retirement people experience in 2050 will not be determined by pension savings alone. It will also be shaped by the strength of the economy, public services, infrastructure, communities and the natural environment.

The decisions made today about climate action, investment and resilience could therefore influence not only how much money people have in retirement, but the lives they live.

This is why we want to play our part in delivering a net zero economy and managing our impact and dependency on nature, to deliver better outcomes for our customers and shape the world they will retire into.

How different groups can help shape better retirement outcomes

The research shows that retirement security is shaped by more than individual saving decisions. Given the systemic nature of climate change, many stakeholders have a role to play in building a world worth retiring into:

  • Individuals can engage with their pensions, understand how their money is invested and think about the kind of later life they want.
  • Employers, advisers and workplace pension providers can help people make informed decisions, improve engagement and communicate how pensions support financial security and resilience.
  • Pension providers and life insurers can use long-term scenario analysis, diversified investment strategies and stewardship to protect and improve customer outcomes.
  • Investors and businesses can allocate capital towards resilience, innovation, sustainable growth and the transition to a lower-carbon economy.
  • Policymakers can improve retirement outcomes by investing in resilient infrastructure, housing, healthcare, energy and transport, supporting an orderly transition, and ensuring the Pension Commission considers climate resilience alongside pension adequacy.

We’re on a journey to becoming a net zero business by 2050. We’re taking action to achieve this, including actively engaging with high-emitting sectors, which we believe is vital to tackling the climate crisis. The actions we take are designed to help our customers achieve better outcomes and greater financial security in later life. Read more about our journey to net zero.